In a stunning twist that defies four decades of electoral reality, recent polls from firms like Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research, and Ipsos are painting an absurd picture: the Liberal Party, led by the freshly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney, is supposedly surging in Western Canada. Alberta, a province that hasn’t given Liberals the time of day since Mulroney’s heyday, is allegedly polling at 33% for Carney’s crew, with the Conservatives slipping to a measly 52%. British Columbia, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan—bastions of Conservative and NDP loyalty—are also showing suspicious Liberal upticks, some as high as 40%. These numbers aren’t just eyebrow-raising; they’re a neon sign screaming “something’s fishy.” Are we really to believe the West has suddenly fallen for a Bay Street banker turned politician, or are these polls a carefully crafted illusion?
Let’s start with history, because it doesn’t lie—unlike, perhaps, these pollsters. Alberta has been a Conservative fortress since the 1980s, with the Progressive Conservatives routinely crushing it at over 60% before merging into today’s CPC. In 2021, the CPC snagged 55.3% of Alberta’s vote, while the Liberals limped in at 15%. The NDP, not the Liberals, have been the province’s protest vote, peaking provincially in 2015 at 40.6%. A jump to 33% Liberal support in 2025—a whopping 18-point swing—while the CPC drops from its usual 60% range? That’s not a trend; that’s a fantasy. Even in 1993, the Liberals’ best Alberta showing in decades (34.5%), they were dwarfed by Reform and PCs. This isn’t a comeback; it’s a conjuring trick.
Then there’s BC, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan—provinces allergic to Liberal dominance since Trudeau Sr.’s NEP debacle alienated the West. BC’s 2021 split was 33.2% NDP, 32.9% CPC, and 26.8% Liberal—hardly a red wave. Manitoba’s Liberals hit 28.8%, Saskatchewan’s a pitiful 11.8%. Now, polls like Probe Research (March 2025) claim Manitoba’s Liberals are tied with the CPC at 44%, and Saskatchewan’s at 40%. When’s the last time these Prairie heartlands broke 40% for Liberals? Try 1980 and 1993, fleeting blips in a sea of blue. These aren’t organic shifts; they’re statistical sleight-of-hand.
Who’s behind this? Enter Liaison Strategies, a shadowy outfit that conveniently popped up just as Carney grabbed the Liberal reins on March 9, 2025. Led by David Valentin, who boasts vague “12 years of polling experience,” the firm’s churning out IVR surveys—like a March 19 poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council—showing Liberals at 40% nationally. Critics on X call it a “government-funded front,” and the timing stinks: no real track record before Carney, now it’s flooding the zone with pro-Liberal numbers. Mainstream firms like Ipsos and Abacus echo this, but their regional breakdowns strain belief too. Alberta at 31% Liberal (Mainstreet, March 17)? BC tightening up suspiciously? It’s a chorus of convenience.
The methodology’s a red flag. IVR polls—those robotic phone calls—skew old, likely missing younger NDP voters who’d rather die than vote Liberal. Online panels can be gamed with urban-heavy samples, inflating Carney’s appeal while the rural West seethes. Sure, Carney’s honeymoon and U.S. trade drama might bump Liberal numbers, but 18 points in Alberta? Forty percent in Saskatchewan? That’s not a honeymoon; that’s a hallucination. Compare this to 2015, when Trudeau’s best Western swing was 15 points in BC—still nowhere near these figures. History says the West doesn’t flip like this unless the polls are lying—or someone’s cooking the books.
What’s the play? Carney, the ex-Bank of Canada golden boy, waltzes in amid a trade war, and suddenly polls paint him as the West’s savior. It’s too neat, too perfect. Liaison’s obscurity, paired with its Liberal-friendly output, reeks of an agenda—maybe not direct fraud, but a nudge to shape narratives and spook Conservative voters. The West has never trusted Ottawa’s elite, and Carney’s the poster child for that crowd. These polls don’t reflect reality; they’re a middle finger to 40 years of voting records. Until election day proves otherwise, this “surge” deserves a hard pass—and a harder investigation.